2025/11/18 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

In the short term the bias is to sell, so opening a short from here and taking it down to Line C is also an option.
However, the overall flow is still up, so waiting for the timing of a reversal looks like it offers more room to run.

Scenario A

If price breaks above the high, I’ll wait for a pullback and follow it with a long.
Target is around 156

Scenario B

As I wrote at the start, right now on a day-trading level the situation calls for looking to sell.
In that case the target would be around Line C, so if price stops falling around Line C, or turns up (making higher lows) without reaching Line C, that becomes a buying opportunity.
I’d like to time my buys while watching the lower timeframe price action.
Price could also just keep falling from here, so it’s important to wait and not buy until the decline stops.
Target is Line A, and if that breaks, around 156

Scenario C

A break below Line C means losing support, so I’ll look to sell.
The near-term target is the green line around 154.5

Review

It was Scenario A.

The entry was a long from the red circle, which was the pullback after price broke above Line A.
The rally stalled at an awkward level, but given the time of day it was hard to justify holding, so I closed out. 45 pips

As I wrote in Scenario B, if you were buying with the view that price would “turn up without reaching Line C,” buying from the blue circle was also a good option.
The risk-reward is excellent, so it’s worth getting in even if it’s somewhat of a countertrend trade.