2025/11/13 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Short term it’s in sell mode, but the strategy is to wait for downside stalling and then buy.
The 1-hour chart has formed a double top, so there’s also a chance price returns to the daily chart range.

Scenario A

If price breaks above Line A and the recent high, the uptrend continues, so I’d like to buy.
Ideally I can go long from a short-term pullback.
Target is 155.5

Scenario B

A long from the current range low.
If the downside stalls within this range, I’d like to expect a rise this time for sure.
Target is Line A, and 155.5 if it breaks above.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, I’ll sell, assuming it returns to the daily and 4-hour range.
Target is around 154, but watch out for a bounce from the pink line below Line C.

Review

It was Scenario C.

Price formed a double top at the range high and then dropped, so the play was selling the rally as it bounced off the pink line.
You could also sell at the first red circle. The momentum is clearly fading there, so it’s an easy entry.
Entering at the second red circle gives a better risk-reward.

After that, price fell just short of the 154 target, so I took profit as it started making higher lows. 38 pips