2025/11/11 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

My bias is to buy, but since we’re near the highs on the daily chart, this isn’t a spot where I want to buy aggressively.
Do I buy after a break to the upside, or wait for a drop into a range and buy from there?

Scenario A

Buying the dip after the high is broken.
However, the green line just above is also acting as resistance, so I think the real rally only starts once price clears the green line.
This will be a trade where I stay aware that we’re still near the highs.
Target is 154.9

Scenario B

The pattern where price drops first and forms a range.
The range low is around 153.9, but the 154 round number is also a strong pullback candidate.
Target is from Line A up to the green line above at 154.5

Scenario C

Looking to go short after a break below Line C.
In this case, it would be another failure to make a new high, so I expect a move toward the range low on the 4-hour chart.
Target is around 153.5

Review

No trade

For trading based on the 1-hour chart (H1) and the 15-minute chart (M15), there was nothing in particular to do today.
Since price was near the highs on the daily chart, selling from the red circle is a valid option if you take the bias from one timeframe higher.
It’s a short from the point where price got stopped at the range high and started turning down (making lower highs).
The risk-reward is good, too.