Daily Trade Strategy: Feb 2025

Yesterday price looked like it was going to break through the range high, but in the end it came back inside the range. That said, I have a feeling that today we'll see some movement, unlike the past few days. It's starting to look like we might finally get a break below the range. Based on the current chart structure, my near-term strategy is as follows.

The market context has been unchanged for about three days. Overall I see the downside as favored, but on the 1-hour chart (H1) and 15-minute chart (M15) there's zero momentum. Basically, I think it's fine to wait for the range to break either up or down and then rethink the trade strategy, but if you want to go after smaller moves, I'd go with the following scenarios.

The range is the same as yesterday, so the strategy is also basically the same as yesterday. The big picture is to follow the move after price breaks out of the red-box range in either direction, so if you don't want to bother with small trades, it's fine to just leave it until the range breaks. For now, overall, the situation is unchanged: a break to the downside is more likely.

A directionless range. If anything, I'm looking to sell.Assuming the red box marks the range high and range low, I'll approach the day with three entry scenarios.

Price has risen for now, but overall the downtrend doesn't seem to have changed. For day trading, this is a situation to go in with a short-term bias to the buy side. Since the idea is to catch the retracement before it turns back into a decline in line with the bigger trend, I don't expect this to be a trade where long entries are held for a long time. Applying the short-term buy + wait-for-a-bearish-shift strategy to the current chart shape:

The daily chart remains in a descending range like last week, but the downtrend has become clearer than it was last week. My bias for this week is basically still to sell, but for the time being, the focus is on whether price breaks below the 188.28 line. Will it break through cleanly, or pull back first before dropping? It's the last week of February, so this week will show whether the monthly chart also closes with a candle body below the 189.5 key level. Over the course of the week, I think there's a possibility it could even reach the yellow line at 183.9.

On the daily chart, yesterday's price action dropped to the red line at 189.5, the key level I had drawn in my weekly strategy. On the 15-minute chart (M15), price dipped below the red line once, formed a double bottom and came back up, and it is now forming a range like the one in the red box. The key point today is whether price breaks out of this range in either direction or just drifts around inside it.

After the previous day's drop, the flow has turned fully to the downside. Price is moving toward the red line at 189.5 that I marked in the weekly strategy, but I'd like to wait for a retracement before looking for an entry. The ideal is Scenario A: a short on a 4-hour role reversal after a big retracement, but given the strength of this drop, I don't think the chances of price retracing that far are high. The buy scenario from the current shape is Scenario B: if price rises above the 190.6 level, I'll switch my bias to buying. Realistically, I'm looking at Scenario C, a short when price hovers around 190 and then drops again. However, support from the 189.5 line is also possible, so I think the entry will need to be made while staying ready for a sharp rebound. If price reaches the 189.5 line and breaks below it, or if the chart shape changes, the strategy will need to be updated.

Today I'm basically holding a bullish bias. The first key point is the battle around the 191.7 line. If the line holds, I'll look to go long with Scenario A. If price breaks below the line, I'll switch to Scenario B and target a retracement. In Scenario B, the aim is a short-term short down to around the next line below. If I miss Scenario A and price rises, I'm considering Scenario C: wait for a new high, then target the retracement. Scenario C would require updating the strategy, so I'd like to rethink things once a new high is made.

Starting right at the point where we'll see whether price breaks out of the range formed yesterday, from 190.66 to 191.33. If it fails to break above the range high from here, I'll go short. For a short, as I wrote in the weekly strategy, I'd like to target the line around 189.7. If it breaks above, the target is around 192–192.4.