2025/02/19 GBP/JPY Strategy
Today I’m basically holding a bullish bias.
The first key point is the battle around the 191.7 line.
If the line holds, I’ll look to go long with Scenario A.
If price breaks below the line, I’ll switch to Scenario B and target a retracement.
In Scenario B, the aim is a short-term short down to around the next line below.
If I miss Scenario A and price rises, I’m considering Scenario C: wait for a new high, then target the retracement.
Scenario C would require updating the strategy, so I’d like to rethink things once a new high is made.
Review
In the morning I had a bullish bias, but over the day the flow shifted to the downside and the price kept falling all day.
○1
If you took the morning’s Scenario A, this is where you’d go long. In that case, it’s good if you managed to exit when the price started falling without finishing its rise. Given how the chart moved, that would have been a bit difficult.
Some people may have been stopped out here.
For an entry at ○1, the stop-loss level goes slightly below the next green line down, so in that case you wouldn’t get stopped out and could exit at a small profit or breakeven on the next rise.
○2
If you judged from the previous day’s flow and the shape of the daily chart that the price would fall that day, this price zone was the best entry. That’s Scenario B.
However, the green line below is also a zone that could act as support and lead to another rise, so once you enter, you need to watch patiently for 2–3 hours until it breaks below.
○3
This price zone, where the price broke the green-line support and formed waves while turning down (making lower highs), was the easiest spot to enter.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
