2025/02/25 GBP/JPY Strategy
A directionless range. If anything, I’m looking to sell.
Assuming the red box marks the range high and range low, I’ll approach the day with three entry scenarios.
Scenario A
Selling the rally after price fails to break the range high, drops, and breaks the recent low.
The guide is the line around 188.9, with the target at the range low, or around 187.3 if things go well.
Scenario B
Wait for price to stall at the range high for a while and then start turning down (making lower highs), then go short.
Scenario B has the better risk-reward.
The target is the same as Scenario A.
Scenario C
Buying the dip after price breaks above the range high.
Since the overall flow is to the downside, this long is taken on the premise that I’ll exit immediately at any sign of a decline.
The target is 190, or 190.6.
Review
It was a day with a chart that looked obviously lifeless.
Price just wandered around inside the range all day, so there was no need to force a trade.
Still, if you were looking for opportunities, I think there were two spots you could have traded.
○1
A long at the point where price bounced off the range low, formed 5-minute-level S/R, and was about to start rising.
The resistance at the recent high is a concern here, so this is a moment that needs watching, with the intention of exiting right away if price fails to break above the high.
○2
Selling the rally on the neckline break after a double top formed at the range high.
The risk-reward is good here, and price dropped right after entry, so you could move the stop loss to breakeven, set a limit take-profit at the range low, and just leave it.
This was the best entry point of the day.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
