Feb 28, 2025 GBP/JPY Strategy
Yesterday price looked like it was going to break through the range high, but in the end it came back inside the range.
That said, I have a feeling that today we’ll see some movement, unlike the past few days.
It’s starting to look like we might finally get a break below the range.
Based on the current chart structure, my near-term strategy is as follows.
Scenario A
A short on the drop after one more retracement. The guide is the S/R around 189.05, but the blue line at 188.9, which price has been reacting to all along, will also be in focus, so rather than a single line I’ll treat this area as a zone.
I’d like to set the target around 187.
Scenario B
This may be the most likely one: selling the rally after price breaks through the range low.
The idea is to short where the range low around 188.3 turns into S/R and price drops from there.
The target is likewise around 187.
However, looking at the daily chart, there isn’t much acting as support, so I think there’s a chance we could aim for 186, or even further down to around 184.
Scenario C
The pattern where price goes back into the range again.
I feel the probability is low, but it’s not zero.
I’d like to go long on the pullback after price breaks above the recent high on the 15-minute chart (M15), aiming for 190.
The pullback after breaking above the recent high is likely to come below the 189.05 line, so I’ll need to wait carefully for the right timing.
Review
It looked like Scenario B was playing out, but price rose again and moved back into the range.
This kind of movement continued all week.
The chart situation has changed from the morning strategy, but there were two entry opportunities, shown below.
○1
Buying the dip after the break above the recent high turned the bias bullish.
The recent high acted as support/resistance, making this an easy spot to enter.
The target is around 190 at the blue line.
In reality, price rose as far as the pink line at 190.3 above it, but there was a drop forming a pullback just before that, so realistically I think you would take profit where the rise stalled at the blue line.
○2
A selling-the-rally point after price set a high, then dropped back into the range.
On the 15-minute chart (M15), this is also an S/R level at the neckline of a double top.
Since it was late Friday night, rather than holding the position for a long time to extend gains, the idea is to quickly take profit once price reaches the line below.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
