2025/11/07 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The 4-hour uptrend has broken down, and it’s starting to feel like price wants to drop.
If it does fall, it looks like we could target around 152.

Scenario A

The current range high is around Line A.
If price breaks above it, I’ll consider buying.
The target is the upper pink line, around 153.7

Scenario B

Selling from the range high.
When price comes back up to around Line A, there’s a chance it will have made a short-term bullish shift, so in that case the timing needs to be chosen carefully.
The target is Line C. If it breaks, 152.2

Scenario C

Selling the rally after a break below the range.
The target is 152.2

Review

It was Scenario A.

The red circle, the pullback after breaking above Line A, turned out to be a fairly deep one.
The rally was half-hearted too, so I took profit when it stalled near the neckline. 27 pips

Neither the 4-hour chart (H4) nor the 1-hour chart shows a clear direction, so a strategy of taking only short, high-certainty moves works well here.

From a 4-hour chart (H4) perspective, you could also go short from the blue circle.