2025/10/30 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The overall flow is up, but in the short term the price has been coming down.
The strategy is to look for buys while judging whether it stops around here or drops another leg.

Scenario A

This scenario buys the pullback after the short-term decline breaks down.
Even if price breaks Line A, it’s still in a range, so depending on the situation it’s safer to properly wait for a pullback.
The target is around the green line at 153.2, so in some cases there may not be much room to run.

Scenario B

This scenario buys from downside stalling around Line B.
It’s not a buy yet, but wait until Line B holds firm and you can judge that the drop has stalled, then go long.
The target is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line B, you can look at selling the rally in the short term.
However, the overall trend is up, so think of it as just taking a short-term dip within that.
The rough target is around 152.2, but it could go as far as around 152.
That said, this trade goes against the overall flow, so another valid strategy is to deliberately stay out and wait for it to turn back up again, then aim for a long.

Review

It started as Scenario C, then turned into Scenario B.

In the first half, price broke below Line B, so I take a short-term short from ○1.
I take profit right away once it hits the target. 27 pips
There was also a data release, and price rallied quickly in a V-shaped reversal.
If you hadn’t taken profit, you might have ended up with a breakeven exit or a stop loss.

After that, it turns into an uptrend, so you can go long from ○2 on the pullback.
Price breaks through the green target line, so I hold, and it keeps rising with no clear turning down, reaching the next green line up.
It finally starts turning down there, so I take profit. 140 pips

If you couldn’t buy in Scenario B, buying from ○3 is also an option.