2025/10/27 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The weekly chart made a new high on a candle-body basis, but the daily chart is losing momentum after reaching the recent high.
I have a feeling it will keep rising this week too, but we may first see a daily-chart-level pullback form.

Scenario A

If price breaks above the recent high, I’ll stay with buying, but there’s a daily key level at 153.2–3 just above Line A.
Even above Line A, we’re still in a daily resistance zone, so we need to keep in mind that momentum may not last and price could drop.
Since this is a buy from the pullback, I’ll exit right away if it fails to make a new high.
Assuming it breaks through the daily key level, the target is 153.7

Scenario B

This scenario aims for a bounce from around Line B.
In the short term it looks like price may already have broken the low, so it’s safer to buy after confirming that Line B is holding firm.
Target is 153.2

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line B, I’ll consider selling.
The pink line near the letter C acts as support, so there’s still a chance of a bounce until it breaks, but once Line B breaks, it becomes much harder to buy.
The daily chart is in the middle of forming a clear double top, so I think a short is worth going for.
Target is 152.2

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

○2, after the reversal from the short-term drop, is a buy.
You take profit where it starts turning down (making lower highs), so that’s about 20 pips.

It’s outside the plan, but ○1 is a sell.
This short is based on the idea that the short-term downtrend might turn into a decline on the daily chart level.
In the end, price bounced right back after making a new low, so it was a breakeven exit.