2025/10/21 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The daily chart looks like it wants to move higher, but the 4-hour chart is still a sell.
The key thing to watch is whether price breaks through the 4-hour key level, but basically I have a bullish bias.

Scenario A

Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
Around 151.4 is a 4-hour key level, so there isn’t much room to run.
If you buy on Scenario A, don’t get greedy—it’s best to take profit while you’re still in the green.
Target: 151.4

Scenario B

This is the scenario where price forms a pullback first and then rises.
For now, I’m looking at the green line near B, around 150.9, as a guide.
If the pullback is deep, it could reach as far as the pink line below it.
Target is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C

If price drops from the current shape, it would be a decline from a double top on the 4-hour chart, so we might see another test of the lows.
I’ve set the C line fairly low, but I think price will draw a wave turning down (making lower highs) before getting there, so once it clearly breaks below the 150.5 round number, I think it’s fine to start selling.
I expect some bounce at the pink line, so be careful there.
Target: 150.1

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

I went long from the red circle, the pullback after price broke above Line A.
At that point, price had already broken through the Scenario A target once, so I was also taking into account the possibility that the bias had turned on the 4-hour chart.
After the entry, price went on to make further highs, and I took profit as it came back down after breaking above the red line. 77 pips