2025/10/14 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

It looks like an upward flow may be starting to develop.
If price fails to break above here and drops, it will be hard to buy right away.

Scenario A

If price breaks above the high again, I think a fully bullish bias is fine.
It would put the recent high on the daily chart within reach as a target.
The day-trade target is 152.8. You could also hold, as long as you accept the risk.

Scenario B

The bias remains bullish.
However, if price drops from here, it will form lower highs, so some caution is needed.
It will turn into a full range, so the plan is to confirm higher lows and then look for a long.
The first target is Line A; if it breaks above, the plan is the same as Scenario A.

Scenario C

If price breaks below Line C, switch to a bearish bias.
The strategy is to target the recent low on the 4-hour chart.
Target is around 151.2

Review

It was Scenario C.

The plan was selling the rally after a break below Line C, but you can’t sell from the blue circle.
The retracement is too shallow relative to the recent drop, and price is rising in the short term.

After that, wait and see, and go short somewhere around the red circles, where the day’s opening price acts as support/resistance (S/R) and caps price.
Take profit on reaching the recent low and the short-term turning up (making higher lows). 33 pips