2025/10/08 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

I’m still holding a bullish bias, but we’re in a price zone where the momentum could start to fade any time now.
If price breaks Line C, it looks like it could drop in earnest.

Scenario A
Looking at the 4-hour chart (H4), price has been rising at an accelerating pace, and I don’t think this momentum can last.
Even if it clears the recent high on the 15-minute level, buying from here carries a high risk of buying the top.
Technically, I’ll wait for a pullback after the breakout and buy from there.
Target is around 153.1

Scenario B
Will it bounce off Line B?
I’m expecting the price zone to be around current levels, but I can’t buy yet.
I’ll look to go long once I’ve confirmed how solid the line is.
Target is Line A; if it breaks above, same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line B, it’s a sell in the short term.
This is a short-term trade aiming to take the move down to Line C.
However, until Line C breaks, the overall flow is still bullish, so if you’d rather trade at a relaxed pace, it’s also fine to wait for a reversal to the upside somewhere before Line C and then look to go long.
That said, considering the scenario where Line C breaks, getting short from the break of Line B would be really juicy.

Review

It was Scenario B.

Long from ○1, where price was turning up (making higher lows) near the B line.
It fell just short of the target, so I took profit where it was capped at the round number and started turning down (making lower highs). 47 pips

After that, you could wait for a pullback and go long again from ○2.
Price kept rising, but I closed out before the FOMC announcement. 33 pips