2025/10/02 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The overall trend is down, and the daily chart is in a price zone where downside stalling looks likely soon.
At the scalping level, price is being supported around the thin red line, so it’s a buy situation.
Basically, the strategy is to sell from above.

Scenario A
If price breaks above around Line A, the 1-hour chart makes a bullish shift.
I’d like to buy, targeting the retracement.
Target is around 147.5–147.6

Scenario B
The thin red line around B is acting as support, so it’s a buy in the short term.
However, selling is also likely to come in from Line A, which is the 1-hour rally high.
Given the overall flow, it’s a sell for now, so I’d like to sell from around Line A.
Target is the range low around 146.7. If it breaks below, down to 146.4.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break of the low.
However, with the chart in its current shape, it’s a bit hard to enter.
The stop-loss level will probably depend on what the chart looks like at the moment the low breaks.
The target would be around 146.4, so depending on the situation, I’ll pass.

Review

It played out as Scenario B.

Price was turning up (making higher lows) a little in the short term, so I went short at the red circle, where it turned down (making lower highs) after dropping from the range high.
I took profit where it started turning up (making higher lows) near the range low. 50 pips