2025/09/26 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Wait and see.

This morning I saw it as a range between B and A, but price has broken below.
I’d like to look for a short, but line B is still provisional.
I’ll consider it once the range becomes clearer.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the recent high, it’s a buy.
That said, it feels pretty overextended, so I think the rally stalled just short of the round number.

Scenario B
Price is slightly below line B, but if it comes back above line B without dropping much, I’ll look for a long while judging whether the line is still holding.

Scenario C
If the downtrend continues and price gets capped at line B a few times, I’m thinking of selling.
In that case, the target is 149.4.

For A and B, it’s hard to set a target for now, so basically I’ll wait and see.

Review

It turned out to be Scenario C.

As expected, price action during the day was indecisive.
It feels like the market is feeling out where the range low will be.

Even so, there was a short from the red circle, where price clearly broke below the low and then made a retracement.
This one fell just short of the target at the blue line, 149.4.
Since it has formed a downward pattern, I’d like to hold until a double bottom forms, but waiting for that would end up taking until 4 am JST (19:00 UTC the previous day).
Since it’s also a Friday, I think it’s better to close out quickly.
Taking profit at the first bounce would have given about 24 pips.