2025/09/23 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

My impression is that it might drop to around 147.5, the key level on the 4-hour chart.
I still expect price to move within the narrow range on the daily chart.

Scenario A
For now, if I’m going to buy, I think it would be after price breaks above Line A.
Depending on how the chart shapes up from here, I may be able to buy from a bit lower.
Target is 148.2

Scenario B
A scenario of selling the rally from around the recent high.
I have a feeling the price zone between B and A will be a bit hard to trade.
Line C acts as support, so if price rises, it may make higher lows from around the current price.
I think once price breaks above Line B, buying from those traders will come in.
Target when selling from B is 147.5

Scenario C
Selling the rally after price breaks below Line C support.
If Line C breaks, price will start heading toward the daily range low again, but the first target is 147.2.

Review

It was Scenario B.

Price had broken above Line B, so I wait and see, but once the upside started getting capped, I go short.
It’s easy to see on the 5-minute chart (M5).

Take profit when it reaches the target and starts to bounce. 20pips