2025/09/15 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

By the book, it’s a buy until price breaks below Line C, but given the picture on the 1-hour chart (H1) and 4-hour chart (H4), I see sellers as having the upper hand.
That said, we’re still in a range, so the expectancy isn’t high whichever way it moves.

Scenario A
If price clears the recent high, I’ll treat the 15-minute chart as a bullish shift too.
I’ll read it as a move to push higher once more and look to buy the dip.
Target is around 148

Scenario B
A sell scenario from the 15-minute range high.
The small waves forming recently bother me a little.
I’ll need to watch price action on the lower timeframes closely before deciding.
First target is the range low at 147.5, and 147.2 if it breaks

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the range.
Target is 147.2

Review

It was Scenario C.

Price retraced up to the small wave I mentioned in this morning’s Scenario B, and with the pink horizontal line there as well, it was an easy entry point to spot.
Short from ○1.

After that, I took profit where the decline stalled around 147.2, which was roughly my target. 27 pips

If you couldn’t get in at ○1, the next chance was ○2, but there’s something of a double bottom forming below, so it’s not really a spot where I’d want to be selling.