2025/09/16 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The daily chart is in a range with zero sense of direction.
The 4-hour and 1-hour charts look like they might be bearish.
If selling, the strategy is to aim for the daily chart’s range low.

Scenario A
If price breaks above around Line A, the 1-hour chart makes a bullish shift.
The 4-hour chart is in a range, so we can’t aim for much.
Target is around 147.9

Scenario B
Price is currently breaking below the 15-minute range, but if it fails to break and comes back, sell from the range high.
The idea is to aim for the range low once again.
Target is 147.2

Scenario C
If it breaks below, the final target is the daily chart’s range low.
At the day-trading level, I’ll take around 146.7 as the initial target.
If that breaks, I’ll aim for 146.4.

Review

It turned out to be Scenario C, but…

Entering from here is a bit tricky.
That’s because it would be countertrend trading, and it overlaps with a data release.

If you entered accepting the risk, you would take profit when the target of 146.4 is reached. About 68 pips.