2025/09/11 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

If anything, I lean toward buying, but on the 4-hour chart this is a price zone for selling the rally.
The daily chart is also in a narrow range with almost no movement.
There may be no movement until today’s CPI release.

Scenario A
On the daily chart, two days ago printed a long lower wick, and yesterday barely closed as a bullish candle.
A move higher today is possible, so if price breaks upward, I picture it heading for the daily range high once again.
Target is 148.2

Scenario B
I see the current range low as Line B, but yesterday the price slightly above it, around 147.25, acted as support.
Price is still being supported in that price zone now.
If you buy from around 147.25, your stop distance gets that much wider, so it comes down to whether you can accept the risk.
Personally, in a case like this, I either wait for the range low or join after an upside break.
Target is around 147.6

Scenario C
If it breaks to the downside, I’ll consider selling.
Based on the chart shape, it looks unlikely to fall, but if it does, I’d expect it to go as far as the daily range low.
Target is 146.5

Review

It was Scenario A.

A long from the red circle, the pullback after the break above Line A at the range high.
It fell just short of the target, and I took profit where the rise stalled just below the 148 round number. 26 pips

That was the right moment to close out ahead of the CPI release at 9:30 pm JST (12:30 UTC).