2025/09/08 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The setup favors buying, but the 4-hour chart has been ranging the whole time, and so has the daily chart.
On top of that, price is being capped by the yellow line at 148.5, which is acting as resistance.
My stance is to patiently wait for a pullback.

Scenario A
A break above the yellow line means buying continues, but it doesn’t feel like it will turn into a trend right away, so I don’t think there’s any need to rush.
Even if price keeps climbing, it will form a pullback somewhere, so I think you can just wait for that.
By the book, the play is to wait for the yellow line to act as support/resistance (S/R) and then go long.
Price has been rejected and dropped from this price zone again and again, so watch out for a false breakout.
The target would be around 150.9, the high on the daily chart.

Scenario B
A long from near the bottom of the current range.
The chart is starting to take a shape that makes you wonder, “Is it bottoming out and heading up?”, so it might be OK to buy once you see the lower timeframes turning up (making higher lows).
Overall, we’re in a range and near the highs, so I want to avoid the sequence of buying the top, then a drop, then getting stopped out.
Target: 148.5

Scenario C
The pattern where price goes on to form a deeper pullback.
This scenario aims to catch the downside of that pullback.
What I’m picturing for now is a gap fill followed by a rise, so the target is 147.5

Review

It was Scenario C.

Price dropped sharply and reached the Scenario C target, but I’d aim for one more leg down from support/resistance (S/R) and go short at either of the red circles.
However, price fails to make a new low and stops falling, so it’s an exit. 20pips

After that, you could sell the rally around the blue circle, but the timing is a bit tough.