2025/08/29 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The 4-hour, 1-hour and 15-minute charts are all sells.
However, on the 4-hour we need to be wary of being near the lows.
It also looks like price is already building a base at the lows on the 15-minute level, so be careful.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A, switch to a bullish bias.
Then wait for the subsequent pullback and look for a long.
Target is 147.4–5

Scenario B
Basically, this is a situation where I want to be selling.
The basic plan is to wait for a retracement up to around Line A and then short, but as shown by the faint markers I’ve drawn, there are also some S/R levels I’m watching.
Either way, scalpers are currently pushing on the buy side, so I’ll identify where this flow stalls and short there.
Target is around 146.7

Scenario C
If price breaks below Line C, look to sell the rally.
However, as I mentioned at the start, we’re near the lows on the higher timeframe, so it’s better to wait for a clear retracement pattern to form before shorting.
Target is 146.4

Review

No trade.

I was waiting to sell until price broke above the blue circle, but the 15-minute level was bullish, so there were a few spots where you could have bought short-term.
At the blue circle, price kept rising without turning down on the lower timeframes, so there was nowhere to go short.

August turned out to be an unusually quiet month, but in a market like this, it’s important to trade with consistent rules so you don’t get badly hurt.