2025/08/25 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

For day trading, I have a bullish bias.
However, on the 4-hour chart, price is at a level where selling the rally tends to come in.
The strategy assumes price dips once and then heads back toward the green line at 147.5.

Scenario A
If price breaks above the green line, it looks like it could rise a bit further.
I’ll look to buy the dip off the S/R level and ride the move up.
Setting a target is a bit tricky here.
I’d like to aim for the blue line, but there’s a lot of room to run, so I can’t picture it getting there in one go.
Near-term target is 147.9

Scenario B
This scenario aims for a renewed rise after price forms a small pullback from the current level.
I expect a move back to the neckline of the double bottom, but on the 15-minute level it’s forming a double top.
If price drops to the lower neckline, it becomes a really annoying situation: short-term sell, but buy on the 1-hour.
As a pattern for rising from the double-bottom-like shape forming now, a rise out of a range with the blue line around 147.2 as its lower bound is possible.
I’ll need to stay flexible and look for opportunities based on the chart shape and price action.
I have a feeling this one will be difficult, so it might be fine not to force it.
Target is 147.5, or 147.9 above that

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
On the retracement after price breaks the double bottom’s neckline, I expect the retracement zone to be around 147–147.2.
Target is 146.4

Review

It was Scenario B.

As I wrote this morning, price rose from around the blue line.
While staying wary that it might drop to the neckline, I went long where it reversed on the 5-minute chart (M5).
Took profit when it reached the 147.5 target. 25 pips

Entering from ○2 is fine too.
Even on the 15-minute level, it’s easy to buy the pullback after it broke the high.
The take profit is the same.
I’d like to aim one level higher, but the iron rule is to close out before the data release.

After that it’s late at night, but ○3 is also a buy.
It’s what you could call a rock-solid spot.