2025/08/19 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Since the start of this month, price has been stuck in a narrow range with no clear direction.
Technically it’s a buy, but the 4-hour recent high is acting as a resistance zone.
I also need to keep in mind the possibility of a break to the downside.

Scenario A
I see the current range high at 148.
The scenario is to go long on a pullback after a break above 148, and I’m expecting the pullback to come either as an S/R flip at 148 or at the pink line just below it.
I’d like to set the target around 148.5.

Scenario B
A long from the range low.
I see the range low at the pink line at 147.6, but I think the bullish bias holds down to the green line below it.
However, if price breaks below the pink line, it becomes harder to buy in the short term.
The plan is to wait and see, then go long once I see downside stalling.
Target is 148

Scenario C
Sell on a break below the green line.
Even in this case, there isn’t much to drive a big move, so the target is around 147.1.

Review

It was Scenario B.

I buy around the red circle, where price is supported by the pink line and turning up (making higher lows).
However, it doesn’t reach the target. Price stalls at the upper pink line and starts to fall, so I exit. 12pips

There’s not much you can do in a market like this.