2025/08/11 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Price is currently turning down (making lower highs) from the 4-hour range high, so I’m in wait-and-see mode.
I’m waiting to see where it reverses.

Scenario A
If it breaks above, I’ll wait for a pullback and look to go long.
The idea is to ride the move as the daily chart forms a pullback and continues higher.
However, since we’re near the 4-hour range high, there’s also the pattern where it breaks out only with a wick and then drops back, so a clear exit plan is needed too.
Target is 148.5

Scenario B
I see the green line at 147.5 as the current range low.
This scenario assumes a bounce from the price zone between the pink line at 147.6, near the current price, and the green line.
I think there’s also a good chance it rises without breaking the current pink line.
Target is 148

Scenario C
If it breaks below the green line, I’ll sell for now.
I’ll sell the rally and aim to take it down to the blue line at 147.2.

Review

No trade.

Early on, it’s fine to go short at circle ① by selling the rally after the break below the green line.
However, don’t forget that this is basically a situation where you’re looking to catch the move up once the downtrend breaks down.

The later circle ② is a valid long.
It’s a shallow pullback, so the stop loss ends up far away and it comes down to the trader’s judgment, but as the first pullback after the downtrend broke down, it does have an edge.