2025/08/05 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are bearish, so this is a time to wait for a chance to sell the rally.
On the daily chart, there’s still a possibility of a move up from the pullback low, so I’m also preparing for a scenario where price reverses higher without falling much.

Scenario A
The current retracement reference is the blue line at 147.2.
If price breaks above it, I’ll switch to buying.
That said, it’s not a particularly easy setup.
The target is only around 147.5.

Scenario B
If the blue line holds firm, I’ll look to go short.
This short assumes the downtrend resumes.
The target is the next yellow line down at 146.4.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
The yellow line needs caution, so if you enter after the break below, watch out for a sharp rebound.
The target is the same yellow line.

Review

It was Scenario A.

In the end, the uptrend held and price broke above the range high.
I went long at the red circle, where the blue line acted as support/resistance (S/R).
Price reached 147.5, the target I had written, so I took profit. 35 pips