2025/08/06 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

I’m looking to buy, but on the 15-minute chart price has broken below the low, so it could also be read as a bearish shift.
This is a market where half-hearted entries will get you hurt, so you need to fix your bias on which timeframe you’re trading before you go in.

Scenario A
Buying the dip after a break above the recent high.
I’m picturing the daily chart forming a pullback and then moving higher.
However, the pink line at 148 just above will act as resistance.
If price can’t get above it, the flow could turn downward, so make your exit decision early.
Target: 148.2

Scenario B
I see the lower bound of the current range around 147.35.
However, until price breaks below the zone shaded in red, I think there’s still a chance of upside.
It depends on how the chart shapes up, but if price reaches the red zone and shows signs of rising, I’ll go long.
Target: 148

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below the zone.
If price breaks below this price zone, a continued decline becomes likely.
Target: 146.5

Review

It was Scenario B.

Price approached the red zone I had drawn in the morning and bounced, so I went long at circle ①, the first pullback after the bounce.
It fell just short of the target, so I took profit where the move stalled at the range high. 39 pips
The 5-minute chart (M5) formed a head and shoulders, so it was an easy pattern to read.

After that, price dropped and made a bearish shift, so a short from circle ② was also fine.
In that case, you could have taken around +20 pips.