2025/08/04 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

For day trading, this is a spot to look for selling the rally, but the lower timeframes are rising, so I’ll wait a bit longer.
For scalping, this is a spot for buying the dip.
On the daily chart, we’re at a level that could turn into a pullback, so be careful.

Scenario A
I see 148 as the upper limit of the retracement.
If price breaks above it, I’ll treat it as an upward move and switch to buying the dip.
Target is around 148.5

Scenario B
This scenario is to go short when price fails to break above the pink line at 148 and starts turning down (making lower highs).
As I wrote at the top, the lower timeframes are currently rising.
I’ll wait until that rise breaks down.
Target is around the range low of 147.2

Scenario C
If price breaks below the range low of 147.2, I’ll wait to sell the rally.
Target is 146.4

Review

It was Scenario B.

At the time of the morning scenario, short-term traders were looking to buy the dip, so I was waiting for that rise to break down.
As drawn with the blue marker, I was watching the upward wave, and I went short at the red circle, the first retracement after that rise broke down.
I took profit as price slightly overshot the blue target line and came back. 65 pips

With a data release coming up, no chasing the move further.