2025/07/28 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

Will the daily chart uptrend just keep going, or will it form a pullback first and then rise?
The chart shape is pretty easy to read.

Scenario A
For now there’s nothing but buying, so the only question is where to buy from.
If price breaks above the current 1-hour range, I’ll see that as the uptrend continuing and look to go long.
My first choice is an S/R play off the range high.
Target is around 148.5.

Scenario B
Price is falling short-term right now, but once this drop stops, I’ll consider going long.
I’ll watch whether the current price level becomes short-term S/R, or whether it drops to around the pink line below.
The initial target is the range high around 148, but I’d like to hold assuming it breaks through.

Scenario C
The range low is around the green line at 147.5.
If price breaks below it, I’ll see it as a sell for day trading.
Target is 147.2

Review

It was Scenario A.

Long from ○1, the pullback after the upside break.
Price made a new high, so I hold, but if you like to take smaller gains, it’s fine to take profit once at the light red ○ where the upward momentum starts to fade.
In the end, take profit when price reaches the 148.5 target. 62 pips
It’s just one step short of the yellow line, so you could hold, but there’s no need to hang on late at night for another 5 pips.

If you couldn’t get in at ○1, an entry from ○2 is also OK.
That’s the point where the rise from the pullback becomes clear.

Entering at the blue ○ just before that is also an option, but the S/R flip bounce at the light blue line makes it a short-term sell.
Understanding that, you’d be entering as a bet on the 1-hour role reversal.
It comes down to your criteria for which risk you’re willing to accept.