2025/07/22 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Price is still testing the weekly chart key level, but the 1-hour chart (H1) is a sell.
In the short term, price is rising from 4-hour support, so I’d like to look for a short once that rise breaks down.

Scenario A
If the current rise continues and price breaks above the pink line at 147.6, I’ll consider buying, even as a day trade.
Target is 148.1

Scenario B
I’ll go short on the retracement after price first breaks below the low, or if I can judge that the pink line is holding firm.
However, the blue line below at 147.2 will act as support.
If I sell, I want to sell from as high as possible.
There’s a good chance price stops falling just above the blue line and then rises.
That would be a move where price forms a small double bottom at the 4-hour range low and then rises.
Target is around 147.2

Scenario C
If price breaks below the blue line, the 4-hour chart also turns into a sell for now.
I’ll wait for a retracement before going short. Target is 146.5

Review

There were no entry points from the morning strategy.
The blue circle is where I had written Scenario A, but it wasn’t a place to jump in, and with the bullish candles turning down (making lower highs), price dropped before the conditions for a buy were met.

After that it becomes a scenario update, and the red circle after the break of the pullback low is a point where you could short.
Take profit when price reaches the yellow line, the target I had written for Scenario C, and the chart stops moving. 104 pips