2025/07/14 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Short term, I’m looking to sell, but the 4-hour chart is rising and the 1-hour chart could be read either way.
The daily chart and weekly chart look like they want to go higher. It’s still a tricky spot.

Scenario A
If price forms an upward wave from the current move, I’d like to aim for buying the dip, but since we’re in a range, jumping in hastily is a no-go.
If you’re not comfortable with trade management in a range, it’s fine to wait until price breaks above 147.5 before getting in.
The target is hard to set, but if your entry is on the low side (around 147), aim for the range high at 147.5.
If the entry would be on the high side, closer to 147.5, I’d pass on it.

Scenario B
Looking for a short from around the current level.
The idea is to enter once the lower timeframe starts turning down (making lower highs).
Target is around 147

Scenario C
If price breaks below 147, we can expect a larger correction.
Target is 146.5

Review

It played out as Scenario A.

For a while it was unclear whether to sell or buy, but the red circle is where you could judge that price was going to rise.
Of the two red lines drawn on the morning chart, I was watching the upper one, around 147.2, as a support candidate.
The red circle marks the first pullback after price held that line and kept turning up.

If you were wary of price being capped at the range high, take profit at the green line, 147.5. 16 pips

That said, price kept making higher lows, so I think holding was fine too.
If you held, it’s also a good idea to set a limit order around the next pink line up. 32 pips

When price moves in a range like this, it often rises by about the same amount as the original range width, as drawn with the blue marker, so holding with that area as a target is also a valid strategy.