2025/07/07 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Buy.

The price broke out of the range while I was putting together the scenarios.
Right now I’m waiting for a pullback. There’s nothing pointing to a sell for now, so I’m only thinking about “where to buy.”

Scenario A
If the price keeps rising without a pullback, I’ll need to revise the scenario, but for now I’m looking at the pink line at 144.6 down to the blue line below it around 144.5 as pullback candidates.
Target: 145.8

Scenario B
If there’s a deeper pullback, the price would come back into the morning range.
In this case the short-term picture has turned bearish, so I need to be careful with the timing when going long.
That said, there doesn’t seem to be any setup for selling at the moment.
Target: 145

Scenario C
I see the lower edge of the range at the pink line, 144.2.
If the price breaks below that area, I’ll look to sell.
However, the blue line at 144 just below also acts as support, so it might be better to wait for a break below the blue line before selling in earnest.
Target: 143.6

Review

The upward momentum was strong, and there was no price action matching the scenario I had drawn up in the morning.

The entry would have been the red circle, a small pullback after price broke above the recent high on the 1-hour chart.
The idea is to go long from there, hold to the 145.8 target and take profit. 70 pips
I took profit when price reached the blue line at 145.9, but that was more about the time of day than the shape of the chart.
Based on the chart shape alone, it would still be fine to keep holding.