2025/06/30 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Last week’s weekly chart closed with a bearish candle, so a continued decline is looking increasingly likely.
All timeframes from the 4-hour chart down are pointing to sells, so today I want to look for chances at selling the rally.

Scenario A
If I go long, it’ll be buying the dip after price breaks above the recent high.
Even then, the overall downtrend hasn’t changed, so the target is around 144.9.

Scenario B
It would be really juicy if price came back up to around this level, but that seems a bit unlikely.
The double top around 10 am JST (01:00 UTC) was the perfect entry point.
If price does come back, the target is around 143.9.

Scenario C
Right now, this is the most realistic scenario.
It’s selling the rally after the breakdown.
I’m treating the pink line at 144.2 as the first candidate, but I’ll wait for the right timing, allowing for a retracement up to the S/R level marked with the light red line.
The target is around 143.

Review

It was Scenario C.
Price pulled back to slightly above the pink line, and I went short once it formed a double top.
It didn’t reach the target, so I took profit when it looked like it was about to bounce off the line. 36 pips