2025/07/01 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

The monthly chart closed with a long upper wick, and the weekly chart also closed as a bearish candle, forming a double top.
It looks like price is set up to fall this week.

Scenario A
For day trading, I’ll switch to buying if price breaks above the pink line around 143.9.
The overall downtrend hasn’t changed, but on the 4-hour level it’s turning into a range.
Target is 144.2

Scenario B
I see the current range high at around 143.85.
I’m looking to sell the rally from the range high.
If price rises from here, the 1-hour chart (H1) could also look like it’s making higher lows, so be careful about that.
Target is 143

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
Same target: 143

Review

The move I expected in the morning scenario didn’t happen.

You could short at the first red circle, but price rose again right away, so it ends in a breakeven exit.

The blue circle after that is a technically valid long, but it overlapped with a data release, which makes it tricky.
The red circle after that is a long you could take if you’re someone who watches the charts late at night too.