2025/06/27 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Sell.

Until just a moment ago I was looking to buy, but it has come down, so I’m now looking to sell.
Thinking in terms of buying, it looked like it was going to be a tricky market, so this has made it easier to find a setup.

Scenario A
If it rises again and breaks above the recent high, I’ll look for a short-term buying-the-dip entry.
Keep in mind that the overall picture is bearish, and stay flexible in your decisions.
Target: 145

Scenario B
This is the scenario I most want to trade right now.
It would be the first selling-the-rally opportunity after the shift to selling.
Target: 143.9

Scenario C
I’m watching 144.2 as a potential support/resistance (S/R) level.
If it drops sharply and there’s no chance for Scenario B, I’ll aim for an S/R trade at 144.2.
Target: around 143.9 as well

Review

Early on, it was a short from ○1 under Scenario B.
Take profit where price failed to break the recent low and bounced off the line. 22 pips

After that, price retraced, and you could short again from ○2, where it was turning down (making lower highs) on the 5-minute chart (M5).
This one ends as an exit with a small profit of a few pips.

After that, price made a new high, so you could switch to a bullish bias and go long from the blue ○.
However, the shape of the 1-hour chart (H1) is questionable, so passing on it is fine too.
If you went long, take profit where price reacted around 144.9, the rally high on the 1-hour chart (H1).