2025/06/19 USD/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's USD/JPY call: Wait and see.

There aren’t many reasons to sell right now, but price is still drifting around without being able to clear the daily chart key level, so it’s not a situation where I want to be aggressively buying either.
For now I’m also viewing the 1-hour chart (H1) as a buy, but until it breaks the 4-hour high it will probably keep moving without clear direction.

Scenario A
If it breaks to the upside, it’s a buy, but rather than buying right on the break, I’d wait for a proper pullback before buying.
Until it gets above around 145.5, it’s better to treat it as a range.
Target is around 146

Scenario B
The support/resistance (S/R) at the light red line is a concern, but given the market context I’d like to ignore it.
I’m looking to buy from around 144.5–144.6, which is 4-hour support.
Buying as soon as price reaches this price zone would be countertrend trading, so be careful with timing.
Target is around 145.

Scenario C
If it breaks below, I’m looking to go short by selling the rally.
Target is around 144.

Review

Price didn’t move the way the entry scenario expected.

The blue circle early on is a spot where it’s fine to try an entry assuming a move up.
After that, the clearest one is the red circle.
It forms a clean support/resistance (S/R) level on the pullback after the rally.
Take profit where price gets capped at the recent high. 25 pips

Holding a bit longer is also an option, but it’s late at night, after all.
Either way, the double top that formed afterward would have had you close out in this pattern.