2025/06/12 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

As before, price keeps trying to break above the daily chart’s upper limit and failing.
The 1-hour chart (H1) currently has no clear direction, but I see the overall flow as favoring sellers.

Scenario A
The current price zone is exactly where yesterday’s Scenario B was.
Just like yesterday, I’ll only judge it as heading higher again once it breaks above around 195.8.
There’s the resistance line that’s been capping the daily chart above, plus the 4-hour high, so the target is around 196.2.

Scenario B
Wait for a retracement within the current range, then sell.
If selling from here, I think price is forming a double bottom below, so entry timing needs to be watched carefully.
Target is around 195.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break to the downside.
This pattern is the easiest to read.
Target is likewise around 195.
It’s a short aiming to catch the drop down to the 4-hour pullback low.

Somehow, given the current flow, it does look like it might break to the downside.

Review

It was Scenario C, a sell.

As of the morning chart, price had already broken below the support line, so I was waiting for a retracement. It didn’t break much further and came back up to the recent high, so I went short on the lower high that formed from there.
After it reached the target, price started to look like it was stalling, so I took profit early. 53 pips
This is a support line on the 4-hour chart (H4), so there is also a risk of a sharp rebound.