2025/06/10 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Buy.

Price just broke out of the range that has held since yesterday.
Don’t rush to jump in. This is the time to wait for a pullback.
It looks like it has the momentum to clear the daily high, but in the high zones of the daily and weekly charts, a break above on the 1-hour chart (H1) can turn into a false breakout and come back down, so we still need to be careful.
Basically, I’m assuming it breaks to the upside, with the following 3 scenarios.

Scenario A
I see the 196.2 line as the first candidate for a pullback.
It’s an S/R level on the 1-hour chart (H1), and not a bad price from a Fibonacci standpoint either.
Target is around 196.8

Scenario B
Even if price breaks below the Scenario A line, the bullish bias doesn’t change.
Anywhere in the price zone from A to B could become the pullback, so I’ll keep the bullish bias and time my entry.
A return to this price zone means the range is continuing again, so I’ll wait for a signal such as a double bottom on the 15-minute or 5-minute chart and go long.

Scenario C
If price breaks below around 195.8, it’s a sell.
That would put it back inside yesterday’s range, so I’ll look to sell the rally after it turns down (making lower highs).
Target is around 195.5

The UK unemployment rate comes out at 3 pm JST (06:00 UTC), so be a little careful.

Review

Price dropped sharply shortly before the UK data release.
I was waiting for the timing to go long under Scenario A, but it just kept falling and there was no opportunity.

After that, a long aiming for a reversal off the support/resistance (S/R) marked with the red circle is possible.
I was watching it thinking it might go up to around 195.5, but it kept turning up (making higher lows) as it rose, so I took profit when it reached the 195.7 line.
It’s a line that price has reacted to repeatedly, and given the time of day, it felt like a good place to call it. 55 pips

Since this was outside the plan, it is not counted.