2025/06/05 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/06/05 is to sell.

Yesterday it looked like it would rise, but it couldn’t get past the horizontal line, and then the data release sent it sharply lower.
Technically it’s a sell right now, but price is at a spot where a bounce on the 4-hour chart is possible.

Scenario A
If it breaks to the upside, I want to buy.
However, the higher timeframe is moving in a way where the price range is narrowing, so it’s best to close out quickly once the target is reached.
Target is around 194.4

Scenario B
Selling from the range high.
Technically I want to sell, but don’t forget this is a 4-hour bounce zone.
This is a spot where, even after going short, price could form higher lows, build a double bottom, and then bounce higher.
If that happens, I must exit rather than hold.
Target is around 192.7

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
The target is the same as Scenario B, but the price zone around 193 bothers me a bit.
With Scenario C it’s also close to the entry point, so watch carefully after entry.

Review

It was a Scenario A buy.
I bought the pullback after price broke out of the morning range.
After that it climbed straight up without printing a single bearish candle, and I took profit when it reached the 194.4 target. 67pips
That’s a level it won’t break above in one go unless something happens.

After that I wait and see until the data release.
It’s outside the plan, but the first pullback after that, ○2, is a valid long.
This one also ran in a straight line until the move stalled at the 195.5 round number. 77pips
When a direction emerges after a data release, the move is strong.