2025/05/30 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/30 is to sell.

There was a nice selling opportunity first thing in the morning, around 8:30 am JST (23:30 UTC the previous day).
From here, I’ll keep viewing the chart from the sell side.
That said, it has been falling steadily without forming many waves, so it feels like a tricky market to trade.

Scenario A
If price breaks above Line A around 194.4, I’ll see it as a buy and look to buy the dip.
Target is around 195.
However, I feel this is unlikely.

Scenario B
Sell from Line B at 194.
In theory, this is a good selling point.
Target is around 193.3
However, as I wrote at the start, I feel this is a tricky market.
The zone from B to A will see buyers and sellers clashing, but I see sellers as having the edge, so I think the ideal approach would be to sell after a retracement up to around Line A.
That said, I don’t think a chance to go short after a retracement to around Line A will come today.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
This would be a continuation of the decline, but since the target is again around 193.3, the risk-reward may not be good.
It depends on how the chart develops.

If you caught yesterday’s drop, today looks like a day where you don’t need to force any trades.

Review

Price moved exactly as I had pictured when I put the trade strategy together.
If you were watching the chart from the morning, the orange circle was an entry opportunity.

After that, price drifted around, but there was nothing supporting a buy, so the bias stays on the sell side throughout.
The only opportunity was circle 1, selling the rally after lower highs.
This one didn’t reach the target and bounced off the recent low, so you either take profit quickly or hold and make a breakeven exit.
If you took profit at the line, it was about 35 pips.

After that, price came back up to around line A, but circle 2 is not a short.
In the short term it would be countertrend trading, so you need to wait a bit from here.
As it turned out, price dropped sharply, but in a situation like this you can’t take the trade.