2025/05/22 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/22 is to sell.

Price swung sharply up and down early this morning, but it only moved within the 1-hour range, so the market context hasn’t changed.
The current chart looks like it’s about to break below yesterday’s range. If it does, I’ll need to update part of the strategy, but the basic plan is to sell.

Scenario A
A move above 193.3 would be a bullish shift.
Right now, this doesn’t look very likely.
Target: 194

Scenario B
Sell from around the range high.
Given the current chart structure, if price rises to around B, it will most likely have made a short-term bullish shift, so this looks like it could be a messy trade.
The short entry will need careful timing.
The pink line near B may also act as resistance.
Target: 192

Scenario C
If the current move comes back up without making a new low, the 192.6 area will act as resistance, so if price is capped there, I’ll go short.
If the current move does make a new low, this line becomes the rally high.
Either way, the short in Scenario C is valid.
Target: 192

Review

Early on, it’s a sell under Scenario C.
You could enter with a short at circle ① when price came back to around 192.6, or at circle ②, selling the rally after the subsequent drop.
Whichever you entered on, take profit once price reaches the 192 target. 30–40 pips

After that, price rises and makes a short-term bullish shift.
You can go long from the support/resistance (S/R) at circle ③, the first pullback after that shift.
The idea is to catch Elliott wave 3.
However, you’d exit where price turns down (making lower highs) at the recent high and starts to look like a double top.
The environment isn’t strong enough yet to hold a long, so take profit before the data release to play it safe. About 10 pips
Anyone who held on got lucky.