2025/05/15 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/15 is: sell.

With yesterday’s drop, every timeframe from the 4-hour chart (H4) down has turned to sell.
I think we’re at the stage where the daily chart is forming a pullback.
So where will the daily pullback be?
The blue line at 194 yen, which price has already touched on the chart above, is one pullback candidate.
There’s also another candidate one level lower at 193.3.
I think it will be one of those two.

Scenario A
I’ve made the zone a bit thick, but if price breaks above this price zone, it’s a buy.
I’d like to wait for the pullback and aim for a long.
Depending on how the chart shapes up from here, there’s also a chance of a bullish shift sooner (at a lower price).
Target is around 195.8

Scenario B
Selling the rally from within the range.
This short is based on the expectation that the daily pullback will extend down to 193.3.
If this drop happens, it will close the gap that opened at the start of this week.
Target is around 193.3.

Scenario C
If price breaks below without much of a retracement, I’ll look to trade the S/R at the blue line at 194.
I’ll also allow for a retracement above the blue line to around the pink line at 194.4, and time my entry carefully.

Review

This was a sell under Scenario C.

Going short at circle ① or circle ②, where price pulls back down from support/resistance (S/R), is fine.
However, price doesn’t reach the target, so you need to exit once you see the double bottom and the downside stalling. 30–35 pips

After that, price rises once, but the market context hasn’t changed, so the bearish bias stays in place.
The best short is at circle ③, after the data release is out of the way.
This setup makes timing hard to catch, so you need to watch the lower timeframes closely as well.
Then price gets stopped at 193.5 again, so take profit on the view that it won’t go lower. 30 pips