GBP/JPY Trade Strategy for 2025/05/13

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/13 is to buy.

Right now the chart has been stopped at a weekly chart key level, and the rally has stalled.
This isn’t an environment where price will just keep climbing, but technically it’s still a buy.

Scenario A
Price breaks through the key level at the range high.
In this case I’ll follow it with a long, but this looks unlikely.
Target is around 197.

Scenario B
Buy the bounce off the range low.
If buying from here, the lower timeframes have made a bearish shift, so the timing needs to be judged carefully.

Scenario C
If price breaks below the range low around 194.7, I’ll treat it as a bearish shift for day trading.
I’ll aim to catch the drop that forms a pullback on the daily chart.
This feels like the most natural move.
Target is around 194.

If you caught yesterday’s rally, maybe it’s fine to sit today out?

Review

Scenario B played out with a buying flow, but price rose without forming waves, so it was hard to buy from the bottom.

So, as I wrote in the morning, this was a day when there was no need to force a trade.
If you were going to trade anyway, the option was buying from the pullback at the red circle.
However, this is a price zone that acts as resistance on the daily chart, so it’s not a place where I’d want to trade aggressively.
It’s a spot to approach with the mindset of exiting immediately if price fails to make a new high after entry and starts falling.

If it’s hard to keep watching the chart because it’s late at night, for take profit I think one of these would work:

• Set a limit order at the recent high
• The moment a bearish candle appears right after price slightly breaks above it

That would be 45–70 pips.