2025/05/14 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

My GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/14 is to buy.

The chart is still rising and is starting to push above a key level on the weekly chart.
Technically it’s a buy, but at weekly-chart levels there’s also a pattern where price forms an upper wick over several days and then drops.
It’s still too early to say the key level has been broken, so I need to trade with the view that we’re inside a resistance zone.

Scenario A
If price breaks higher, I’ll simply buy.
Target is around 197.5.

Scenario B
The chart is already looking a bit like a double top, so I’m wondering if it’ll form a pullback first.
I’ll treat around 195.9 as support and look to buy the dip.

Scenario C
If price breaks below support, I’ll consider selling for a day trade.
I’m expecting a correction on the 4-hour or daily chart level, and my first target is around 195.5.

USD/JPY has most likely already started to decline, so GBP/JPY may get dragged down with it.

Review

As expected, it went down.
Under Scenario C, you could go short from either of the circle ① points.
Whether to take profit around 195.5, which I called the “first target,” or to hold is a judgment call.

Normally there’s a high chance price comes back up once more, as at circle ②, so I’d take profit once.
This time, though, I think shorting from circle ② was pretty difficult.

If you held from circle ① or entered from circle ②, take profit either at the line around 194.7, or around 194.4, where price came back after not falling much further while you held.

After that, if you were watching the chart late at night, circle ③ was also a possible short.