2025/05/12 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/12 is to buy.

The market opened with a gap. It’s a gap you can see even on the daily chart, so it’s wait and see for now to find out whether price dips first.
This is outside the plan, but if price draws one more downward wave, selling the rally from around the current pink line to catch the pullback down to 193.3 is an option.
The other pattern is a reversal upward into a range with the pink line as its lower bound, in which case I’d be buying from around the pink line.
I can’t tell which way it will go without watching the price action a bit longer.
Overall the situation favors buying, so I’m considering the following three scenarios.

Scenario A
Price breaks the high and continues higher.
I’d like to target the S/R at the high set this morning. I’m also expecting a possible pullback to around the pink line at 193.8.
Target is around 195.

Scenario B
Price dips first to form a pullback, then rises.
I’ll look to buy the dip from around 193.3, but if price is turning down (making lower highs), I’ll wait carefully for the right timing.
Target is around 194. If it breaks above that, same as Scenario A.

Scenario C
If price breaks below around 193.3, I’ll consider selling.
However, watch out for the pink line around 193.
I’m not sure whether it will be 193.3 or around 193, but I’d like to go short from whichever level turns into S/R.
Target is around 192.6.

Review

It was Scenario A.
You could go long on the small higher lows after the pullback to the pink line.
After that, all you had to do was hold until the 195 target.
There wasn’t really any point along the way that called for an exit. 115 pips

If you missed the entry at the red circle, it gets a bit tricky.
You could buy the pullback after it reached 195, but the expectancy is low.
It was a day that showed how important it is to patiently wait for that one chance a day.

The chart has kept rising since then, and it looks like it could go up to around 195.9.