2025/05/16 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/16 is to sell.

Price has come down quite a long way.
Momentum is fading too, and it looks like the market is eyeing the daily chart pullback.
Technically, though, this is a clear sell.

Scenario A
If price breaks above this morning’s high, I’ll treat it as a bullish shift for day trading.
I’ll then wait for the pullback and look to go long.
That said, I don’t think it’s very likely that a daily-chart-level rally starts straight from there.
Target is around 194.7.

Scenario B
Selling from near the top of the range.
On this chart price is getting quite close to the upper bound, but it’s not a sell yet.
I’ll wait for the right timing before entering.
Target is around 192.7, but watch out for the 193.3 support zone before that.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break to the downside.
Either a role reversal at the pink line or the line around 193.3 is my guide for the retracement high area.

Review

No trade.
Technically, you could go short around the red circle, but the market context isn’t one where selling keeps pouring in, so it’s not a situation where I want to trade aggressively.
As I wrote in the morning, price failed to break the 193.3 support and that was it.

The setup around 5 am JST (20:00 UTC the previous day) is shortable, but I don’t trade right before the Friday New York close.