2025/05/19 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/05/19 is to sell.

The pair started the day by breaking through the support that had held all through Friday, first thing in the morning.
With that, I have a bearish bias.
The line around 193.3 remains a key level, so if price retraces back up there, I’ll look to sell.

Scenario A
The daily chart still has a strong chance of moving higher, so if price breaks above around 193.3, I’ll view it as a buy for day trading.
Target is around 193.8.

Scenario B
I’m picturing a short from a setup where price fails to break the key level and starts turning down (making lower highs).
However, it’s also possible that price won’t retrace all the way to 193.3.
I’ll also keep a close eye on the price action around 193, the pink wavy line drawn on the chart.
Target is the recent low around 192.6–192.4.

Scenario C
If price breaks below from here, I’ll wait for the retracement after the break and go short.
Target is around 192, which I consider the daily chart’s last line of defense.

Review

There were no opportunities.

At circle ①, it’s tempting to go short on Scenario B, but price was turning up (making higher lows) in the short term, so it’s better to wait a bit longer.
While waiting, price broke out to the upside and the bias switched to a bullish bias.

After that there was no pullback, and I’d see circle ② as a sell.
A short entry is fine here, but given that it’s late at night, I wouldn’t take it anymore.