2025/06/04 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy
The GBP/JPY trade strategy for 2025/06/04 is to buy.
After last night’s one-way rally, it feels like the move may have reached its end point.
Technically, though, it’s still a buy.
Scenario A
Buy on a break above the range.
Once price breaks the A line at 194.7, there’s no notable resistance above, so it might be possible to target around 195.7.
Scenario B
Buy from the range low.
The range low I’m currently assuming is around 194.4, the pink line drawn near C.
However, price has kept reacting at the gray line above it at 194.55, so it could also rise from a shallow range.
This is a move you often see when there’s strong momentum.
I want to be careful not to miss the move.
Scenario C
If price breaks below the C line around 194.4, I expect a move down to form a 4-hour-level pullback for now.
For day trading, I’ll look to go short.
Target is around 194.
Review
First up was a buy at ○1 under Scenario B.
Around 10 am JST (01:00 UTC) a long upper wick printed, so I was watching with a bit of caution.
After that, the line near B kept holding, and I went long once price turned up (making higher lows) a little.
It lost momentum around the top of that upper wick, and I exited when a double top formed on the lower timeframe. 29 pips
Price broke above the morning range, so I went long at ○2 under Scenario A, which waits for the pullback after that.
Here I was hoping for a break through the upper limit, but once again it couldn’t get past the upper-wick line.
Same as before, I exited after seeing signs of a drop on the lower timeframe. 33 pips
From around here I was watching for buys only, and went long once more at ○3, where price bounced off support/resistance (S/R).
Until price clears a higher timeframe key level, it often climbs like this, making higher lows several times along the way.
Then it broke through the upper limit, but quickly lost momentum and came back.
This time I didn’t exit right away and held on waiting for a rise, but exited once it gradually started turning down (making lower highs). 8 pips
There was a data release just after 9 pm JST (12:00 UTC), so I closed out before that.
I thought it would eventually break through, but it didn’t go the way I expected.
The blue ○s after that are technically valid shorts.
However, the first blue ○ came right at the timing of the 11 pm JST (14:00 UTC) data release, so it would have been a gamble.
The later blue ○ is fine to enter.
This article reflects the author's personal view of the market. It does not recommend any specific trade; all investment decisions are your own responsibility.
