2025/06/13 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

For now, all I can do is wait for a retracement.
Ideally it comes back up to around 194.7, but if I just wait I’ll miss the move, so I’m narrowing it down to key levels and watching those.

Scenario A
It looks unlikely given the current flow, but if price breaks above this area, I’ll buy.
Target is 195.5

Scenario B
Looking to sell the retracement at one of the pink horizontal lines.
If it’s shallow, around 194.3; ideally around 194.7.
If it retraces all the way to 194.7, the entry chance probably comes in the evening or later.
Target is 193.3

Scenario C
No wave structure has formed yet, so if it drops further from here, I’ll wait for a retracement and go short.
I can’t map out any scenario beyond that.

Somehow it feels like today’s move already ended with the morning drop.
If it retraces, that’s a lucky bonus.

Review

Early on, ○1 is a sell under Scenario B.
The retracement is shallow relative to the recent drop, so caution is needed, but this is a short from a double top on the 5-minute chart (M5).
However, price bounces cleanly off the recent low, so I exit early. 16 pips

After that, price rises and the sellers’ advantage breaks down, so I wait and see.
Price breaks to the upside and I go long on the pullback at ○2. This is the entry point I wrote in Scenario A.
After that, price rises to the top of the daily chart range and gets capped there, so I take profit. 60 pips