2025/06/17 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

The overall flow is bullish, but from here it looks like price may head down to form a pullback for now.
The MAs are starting to cap price from above, so if the rise stalls somewhere between B and C, I’m looking to go short.

Scenario A
If the rise doesn’t stall and breaks out to the upside, buying continues.
Wait for a pullback, then look for a long.
Target is around 197.5

Scenario B
The image is price pulling back up to around here, printing an upper wick, and then dropping…
However, since the overall trend is up and I’m only trading the pullback, the target is around 195.9.
Take profit quickly once the target is reached.

Scenario C
Basically the same idea as Scenario B.
If the rise stalls, I’d like to look for a short from there.

On a day-trading timeframe it’s a sell for now, but the juiciest trade is probably a long entry after the current decline stops.

Review

Early on, I went short from ○1 under Scenario B.
Price rose toward the Scenario B line, and I shorted when the momentum faded and it started turning down (making lower highs).
I exited for now when it stopped falling at the round number near the recent low. 29 pips

After that, I decided to wait and see, wary of a move up.
There was a data release too, after all.

Once it made lower lows and the signs of a decline grew stronger, I went short from ○2 on the retracement.
This was the trade I had written up in Scenario C.
After entry, it made another new low so I held, and it soon broke through the key level and kept falling. At that point I moved my stop-loss level to breakeven, set my limit at 195.5, and went to bed. 62 pips

In reality it kept falling further, so if you had watched the chart until dawn you could have taken more.