2025/06/18 GBP/JPY Trade Strategy

Today's GBP/JPY call: Sell.

Earlier in the morning it was too early to map out a scenario, so I was waiting and seeing, but the price has now formed some waves and things have become clearer.
On the 15-minute chart it’s forming a range, but this price zone is a support zone on the 4-hour chart.
I’m looking to sell, but I need to trade with the fact that this is a support zone in mind.

Scenario A
If the price breaks above the range, I’ll temporarily switch to a bullish bias.
Watching out for the 195.5 line, the target is around 195.8–196.

Scenario B
If the price is capped at the range high, I’ll look to sell.
I need to be careful of a move where it bounces off the 195 line and rises while turning up (making higher lows).
If it breaks through that area, I can expect a break below the range.
The target is around 194.

Scenario C
Selling the rally after a break below.
Today, this pattern might be the safer one.
The target is likewise around 194.

Review

This was a short under Scenario B.
Shorting from either of the first two red circles would have worked nicely.
If you missed those, shorting from the third red circle was fine too.
Take profit was where the move stalled around 194.6. 60 pips

Given the market context, further downside can still be expected, so holding is also fine.
Whether to do so comes down to your trading policy on holding positions overnight.

Technically, a short from the blue circle was possible.
That lines up exactly with the sell in Scenario C.
Price fell right to the 194 target and bounced.
Since the timing was around dawn, actually getting in may have been difficult.